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Post by Vitoscarfone on Oct 29, 2007 16:40:57 GMT -5
Right now the Republicans are sputtering as far as a Viable candidate for 08-No one seems to have any traction.Also,for someone who supposedly wants the Highest Office in the land,Fred Thompson is conspicuous by His silence.Hillary in 08 and then GOD Help us all.
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Post by IvanTheImpaler on Oct 31, 2007 12:07:43 GMT -5
That could turn out to be the case, but recently polls show Obama catching up to Hillary in Iowa. If Obama wins there & in New Hampshire, Hillary may be in trouble. Still, she has raised a LOT of money- some of it legally....
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Post by Vitoscarfone on Nov 1, 2007 19:44:10 GMT -5
From what I understand Hillary is ahead in New Hampshire by a decent margin-However if Barack can concentrate his efforts on Iowa it may bear fruit for him.
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Post by B2 on Nov 3, 2007 15:50:45 GMT -5
I hope, for what its worth, that everyone who still reads this board in the US goes out and votes this Tuesday. Sure its a local election, but it could set up some interesting scenarios for the biggest election in recent history.
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Post by Vitoscarfone on Nov 5, 2007 14:18:27 GMT -5
What's the Election for-City,Municipal?And is it being contested on strictly Party lines?I need to know,I'm a Politics junkie.
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Post by IvanTheImpaler on Nov 5, 2007 17:18:02 GMT -5
It's actually sorta interesting in Erie County- I may not have all the facts correct, but that's never stopped me before.
Mostly local elections (nothing national, no major state races), but the highest profile race here is for Erie County Executive. The incumbent, Joel Giambra (Repub) is not running for re-election becasue a) his approval rating is lower than both George Bush and congress and b) he was incompetent.
The Democratic candidate is former Buffalo coucilman Jim Keane, who dertractors say is a lifetime political hack. He has run for evry office imaginable in Buffalo @ one time (Congress, mayor) and has never won an election outside of South Buffalo.
His main opponent is Chris Collins (Repub), a local businessman. No pollitical experience whatsoever. Until 6 months ago, most folks never heard of the guy.
In Erie County, Democrats hold approx 3-2 registraion advantage over Republicans. It was generally viewed that the Sept. democratic priimary between Keane (endorsed by the Party officials) and Paul Clark would be the real election. (Former Buflo mayor Jimmy Griffin was also in the contest). Keane with approx 50% of the vote amongs the 3, so it was thought he was a shoe-in in November.
Well, a funny thing happened on the way to Election day. As much as Keane tried to paint himself as the anti-Giambra, it turned out that an ANTI-POLITICIAN sentiment arose. Keane never saw it coming until a September poll showed Keane & Collins in a statistical dead heat. That shocked the heck out of evryone, incl. myself. Yesterday's Buffalo News poll saw Collins leading 46-33 %.
I cant emphasize how much of a surprise this woulda been 12 months ago. It just goes to show that time can change eveything in politics. Because everyone Despised Giambra, and there was a national anti-GOP feeling, it was just presumed that a Republican had no chance in this election, esp. given the Democratic enrollment advantage.
Keane especially didnt help himself when years ago, he bragged about "dodging bullets in Vietnam". Turns out that while he was in the military, he was NEVER anywhere near combat duty, and, in fact, never set foot in Vietnam or Cambodia. I know of a least 2 hard-line Democrats who swore off Keane based on that alone.
In a nutshell then, the anti-"careerr politician" factor has outweeighed the anti-Joel Giambra factor here.....in a funny footnote, Jimmy Griffin grew up with Keane in South Buffalo. After the primary, Griffin ended up endorsing the Reublican Collins. (Griffin and Keane have always HATED each other.) ....
In another irony, Clark, who also lost in the primary to Keane, ended up endorsing Keane a week after the primary. This surprised many becasue their primary had been espec. nasty. (It was the Clark campaign who broke the news about Keane lying about his military record.) many thought that a "patronage deal" had therefore been struck between Clark & Keane. Well, about 3 days after Jim keane makes a big deal of his bitter primary opponent now endorsing him, word comes out that both the local District Attorney AND the FBI are investigating the Clark campaign for allegedly filing false financial reports; seems as though someone fessed up to collecting THOUSANDS of $ in cash contributions for Clark to circumvent reporting requirements.
So that's what it's like stateside, Vito..... We'll fill u in on the final #s tomorrow or wednesday.
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Post by B2 on Nov 7, 2007 21:40:54 GMT -5
Here in the Roc, the Democrats decided to focus on local legislative elections instead of running a candidate against County Exec. Maggie Brooks, whose F.A.I.R. plan is anything but, being pulled out of closed-door sessions with mainly only GOP input and no word in edgewise from the public. It worked in 2 of the 3 races needed to sway the vote to the Dems. Carmine Gumina of Webster and Dick Beebe [no relation, Bills fans] of Greece won over their incumbent opponents, turning the 17-12 majority to a 15-14 slim margin for the Republicans in the county legislature. Ted Nixon in the severely gerrymandered district in parts of Pittsford/ER/Brigton/Penfield lost by 150 votes, which would have given the Blue party their first majority in over 15 years.
Yes, the F.A.I.R. plan is an abomination on Maggie's record, and its why Patrick Christopher, getting on the ballot by the slimmest of margins under the Working Families party line, received nearly a quarter of the votes cast for that county exec race, when practically no one has a clue who he is in the first place. Be prepared to see either a gigantic lawsuit or nearly 20-25 different lawsuits against Maggie here very soon by the school districts of Monroe County, as the plan is cutting sales tax revenue that goes back to the schools by 50%, making budget cuts for many school districts extremely harsh.
p.s. I interned for the Monroe County Democratic Committee this fall, so I have a bit of knowledge on a topic for once, eh Ivan?
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Post by Vitoscarfone on Nov 8, 2007 9:52:00 GMT -5
So where is the Tax Revenue going?I smell a Rat and I don't mean Trinity who used to work for TNA.
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Post by IvanTheImpaler on Nov 8, 2007 14:25:18 GMT -5
Your knowledege is NOT being questioned on this one, B2....Congrats on the successful internship.
Your spin could be questioned, however, but I'm not in a position to do that now....
BTW, In Erie County, refering to the (lengthy) post of a few days a go, Chris Collins, who never held a political office in his life, ended up winning Erie County Executive by 63-35%. Collins, a Republican, won every single town/municipality except the City of Buffalo, including suburban Democratic strongholds of Cheektowaga and Lackawanna, where Democrats hold a nearly 2-1 registration advantage over Republicans.
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Post by Vitoscarfone on Nov 10, 2007 9:20:38 GMT -5
It's been shown over time that the Republican Party is better on balance at getting their supporters out to the Polls than the Democrats regardless of Democrat advantage in Registrations.
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Post by B2 on Nov 21, 2007 16:57:52 GMT -5
Its one word: Apathy
Combating it is what we are trying to figure out, and have been trying to do for years. When we find the cure for it, you all will know it by the trail of... voters.
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Post by Vitoscarfone on Aug 6, 2008 6:40:27 GMT -5
So the Candidates,McCain and Obama,are running neck and neck in the polls-Also who will their respective running mates be?This looks to be a repeat of the last 2 elections where it went down to the wire-recounts and electoral college hijinks to ensue shortly.Don't You love elections?On a unrelated note,it looks like Canadians will be going to the polls early,as the minority Conservative government is bringing in some Money bills shortly,and the opposition Liberals,New Democrats,and Bloc Quebecois will probably bring them down early in the Next Session of Parliament,which starts back this Month-We're probably looking at a Election as early as late October-early November in Canada.For the record,I'm voting for My local candidate for the Libertarian Party of Canada.
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Post by porkchopcash on Aug 6, 2008 14:11:11 GMT -5
Ain't got no problem with canada. Worked a few shows in Winnipeg back in the day. Some of the locals even took me to one o' them there ice hockey games. Diidnt much understnad the gimmcik, 'cept for shootin' that puckball in the other team's net, but there were 3 or 4 fights, so I was satisfied.
as for the rest o' you squirrly vermin: learn how to work.
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Post by Vitoscarfone on Aug 7, 2008 8:28:00 GMT -5
So whst's the mood in Western New York-is the bloom off the rose for the Democrats in Albany?Do the Republicans have a snowball's chance in hell?I'm starting to think Jesse Ventura is right and all the mainline political parties are worthless and the voters should start seriously looking at independent or third-party candidates.As long as it's a representative form of government rather than a true democracy(i.e.participatory)the base needs to be broadened.
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Post by Vitoscarfone on Aug 9, 2008 8:10:20 GMT -5
Good article in today's National Post(Canada's leading Conservative newspaper)on Obama having to court the White Evangelical vote.Question,who's resonating the most with the Hispanic voters-I'd say Obama intuitively,but Hispanics tend to be Very religiously conservative so McCain might be able to resonate with that voting bloc.
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